Five distinct growth regions, a price gap to Sydney well below its historical norm, and more than 70 years of Oliver Hume Property Group data on how Melbourne grows. Book a discovery session, free and at no cost to you.
It's a lot. And if you've been holding off on a decision, waiting for more certainty, a clearer picture or a market that feels less complicated, you're not alone.
Here's what's worth knowing. Melbourne has been the only major capital city to underperform its long-term average growth rate over the past five years. That sounds like a problem. For a patient investor with the right strategy, it's the opposite. Markets that fall below their long-run trend don't stay there. And Melbourne's structural story of population, undersupply and yield strength hasn't weakened. It's been building.
The good news beyond that? Melbourne isn't one market. It's five distinct investment regions, each with its own growth drivers, its own risk profile and its own type of buyer. When you understand which one suits your position (your borrowing capacity, your timeline, your goals), the decision becomes far less daunting.
That's where Oli Property comes in. Powered by Oliver Hume Property Group, the organisation trusted by government bodies and ASX 200 companies to deliver critical property data, we've spent over 70 years mapping exactly how Melbourne grows. Here's what the data tells us.
Start with the 20-year picture. Melbourne's long-term dwelling price growth has tracked the national average over two decades, a mark of structural durability, not luck. This isn't a city that boomed on a single cycle and retreated. It's a market that has consistently delivered for investors who stayed patient and stayed in.
Now add the current moment. Over the past five years, Melbourne has been the only major capital city to underperform its long-term average growth rate.
That gap, nearly 10 percentage points, represents a significant discount relative to historical norms. Markets don't sustain discounts of that size indefinitely.
The population story makes the case even more compelling. Over the next decade, Melbourne is forecast to be the second-fastest growing capital city by percentage, and the fastest growing by total population increase. More people, concentrated in a city already experiencing housing undersupply, with rental vacancy rates well below the 3% balanced market threshold. Rental yields are higher than five years ago, and stronger than in Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide.
We don't recommend Melbourne as a monolith. We recommend specific markets, in specific regions, for specific investor profiles. Here's how each stacks up.
Altona North stands out here. It offers relative affordability compared with its higher-priced inner west neighbours while maintaining excellent access to employment and transport. Internal migration data shows Hobsons Bay LGA recording positive net inflows, with the highest inflows coming from nearby Maribyrnong. That's affordability-driven demand, in motion, in real time.
Infrastructure is adding tailwind. The Metro Tunnel is expected to further strengthen accessibility across this region, and the long-term capital growth outlook reflects that. For investors who want proximity to the CBD without the premium price point, the inner west is worth a serious look.
Source: Oli Property / Oliver Hume Property Group research. Internal migration and infrastructure data, 2024.
The south east is where Melbourne's housing market comes into scale. It's one of the city's largest housing markets: established, well connected, and underpinned by strong household formation and ongoing new supply.
Casey and Cardinia LGAs drive the greenfield story here, together accounting for approximately 27% of all new land sales in Melbourne. Growth suburbs like Clyde North, Cranbourne East and Officer have delivered 6% to 9% annual house price growth over the past decade. That's not a spike. That's sustained structural performance.
Population in the Casey region grew by 3.4% in 2024, above Melbourne's average of 2.7%, and major infrastructure projects are in the pipeline to support continued development. For investors looking at a combination of new land, proven capital growth and strong population fundamentals, the south east has consistently delivered.
Source: Oli Property / Oliver Hume Property Group research. Median house price and population growth data, 2024.
Melbourne's northern region has become one of the country's most significant growth markets. Whittlesea, Hume and Mitchell LGAs collectively account for approximately 32% of Melbourne's total greenfield housing supply, the largest single share of any region.
For first home buyers, Mitchell LGA remains one of the more affordable entry points in Greater Melbourne. For investors, the story is one of sustained performance: house prices across Hume and Whittlesea have averaged approximately 6% per annum over the past decade.
The diversity of the market is notable. Lifestyle suburbs like Diamond Creek, Research and Lower Plenty have achieved around 7% annual growth. Meanwhile, emerging growth areas like Wollert and Epping have recorded similar outcomes, supported by affordability, population growth, and significant industrial and logistics employment.
Population growth across Hume and Whittlesea reached approximately 3.4% in 2024, tracking above Melbourne's average. For investors seeking volume, entry price flexibility, or a combination of both, the north continues to earn its place.
Source: Oli Property / Oliver Hume Property Group research. House price and population data, 2024.
The west is where Melbourne's population growth story is most pronounced. Wyndham and Melton LGAs recorded population growth of approximately 4% and 6.5% respectively in 2024, both well above the Melbourne average, and among the strongest in all of Victoria.
This isn't surprising. The west offers relative affordability, large master-planned communities, and ongoing new land supply that continues to attract first home buyers and young families. At approximately 40% of total new land sales in Melbourne, the west carries the largest share of any region.
House prices across Melton and Wyndham have averaged approximately 6% per annum over the past decade. Representative suburbs like Wyndham Vale, Truganina and Tarneit reflect that performance, supported by entry-level affordability and persistent population-driven demand. For investors with a long-term horizon and a focus on population fundamentals, the west is difficult to overlook.
Source: Oli Property / Oliver Hume Property Group research. Population and house price data, 2024.
Geelong isn't just a Melbourne overspill. It's a city in its own right: Victoria's second largest, and the primary commercial centre for southwest Victoria. Located approximately 75 kilometres from the Melbourne CBD, it offers a diversified economic base spanning health, education and knowledge-based sectors.
The numbers tell a compelling story. Population grew by approximately 2.4% in 2024, nearly double the regional Victoria average of 1.2%, driven primarily by inflows from Melbourne. That makes Geelong one of the state's most reliable metropolitan spillover markets.
House prices across Greater Geelong have grown at approximately 6% per annum over the past decade, and while growth moderated after the pandemic-era surge, the structural underpinnings remain intact. The Armstrong Creek growth region is central to Geelong's long-term investment case. For investors who want relative affordability compared to Melbourne metro, a strong lifestyle catchment and proven long-term price performance, Geelong delivers.
Source: Oli Property / Oliver Hume Property Group research. Population and house price data, 2024.
Affordable five-bedroom townhouses on Haines Street, Cranbourne East, in Melbourne's south east growth corridor.
5 bed, 2 bath, 2 car, 169 sq m
Rental estimate: $630 to $680 per week. Deposit: $42,250.
5 bed, 2 bath, 2 car, 169 sq m
5 bed, 2 bath, 2 car, 169 sq m
We've included all the finishing touches, so that you can be confident in your first investment property.
Anyone can show you a suburb profile. What we offer is different.
Oli Property is powered by Oliver Hume Property Group, one of the few privately owned organisations trusted by government bodies and ASX 200 companies to deliver critical property data and insights. Our research department, led by Matt Bell, Chief Economist of Oli Property, draws on more than 70 years of proprietary data spanning 4,800+ suburbs. That's not a marketing claim. That's our working infrastructure.
Our Investment Review Process evaluates every property we recommend across 60+ criteria, covering location fundamentals, infrastructure pipeline, demographic trends, rental demand and long-term capital growth potential. We don't recommend suburbs because they sound good. We recommend them because the data supports it.
More than 100,000 properties delivered across Australia. Thousands of investors helped to build structured, long-term wealth strategies. And still, we'll tell you when a market isn't right for you. Because that's what a strategic partner does.
"Victoria's controversial investor tax regime has helped Melbourne become one of Australia's most affordable major housing markets, economists say, as first home ownership rises and price growth stalls."
The Age, February 2026
Book a discovery session with Cam, one of our Property Investment Specialists.
Book a sessionStep 2Find out which Melbourne region suits your borrowing capacity, your timeline and your goals.
Book a sessionStep 3Every property we recommend is assessed through our 60+ criteria Investment Review Process.
Book a sessionYes, for investors with a structured, long-term approach. Melbourne's population growth, infrastructure investment and diversified growth regions continue to support long-term capital growth across multiple market segments. Our research, backed by Oliver Hume Property Group's 70+ years of data, shows consistent 6% to 7% per annum median house price growth across key regions over the past decade.
There's no single answer, and any adviser who gives you one without understanding your position should be questioned. The south east has delivered strong compound growth (~7% p.a. across Casey and Cardinia LGAs over 10 years). The north and west have delivered comparable outcomes (~6% p.a.) with stronger population growth upside. The right region depends on your budget, timeline and strategy.
Melton LGA in Melbourne's west recorded the strongest population growth of any Melbourne region in 2024, at approximately 6.5%. Wyndham LGA recorded approximately 4% growth over the same period. Both outpaced the Melbourne average of 2.7%. Population-led demand is one of the strongest indicators of long-term housing value, which is why we weight it heavily in our Investment Review Process.
For investors seeking relative affordability compared to Melbourne metro, with strong lifestyle fundamentals and diversified employment, Geelong remains one of Victoria's most structurally sound markets. Population grew at approximately 2.4% in 2024, nearly double the regional Victoria average, and the Armstrong Creek growth region continues to attract development activity backed by genuine demand.
Our Investment Review Process evaluates every property recommendation across 60+ criteria, including location fundamentals, infrastructure pipeline, demographic trends, rental demand and long-term capital growth indicators. Our research department, led by Chief Economist Matt Bell, draws on Oliver Hume Property Group's proprietary database spanning 70+ years and 4,800+ suburbs. We don't recommend on instinct. We recommend on evidence.
We won't tell you this is the only market worth investing in. We won't pretend one suburb profile fits all situations. What we will tell you is that for investors serious about long-term, structured wealth creation, Melbourne's growth fundamentals across five distinct regions continue to make a compelling case.
This marketing material and its contents is provided for general information purposes only. No part of this marketing material constitutes any advice (financial, tax or otherwise), recommendation or representation to you as to any decision which you should make. You should not use any part of this marketing material to form the basis of any investment decision made by you. Before making any investment decision, you should take independent advice from a professional adviser which takes into account your individual needs and circumstances. All information, opinions and estimates contained in this marketing material are subject to change without notice. We disclaim to the greatest extent possible all liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising directly or indirectly from this marketing material or its contents.
When you're ready, we're here. Book a discovery session with Cam, or call 1300 881 780.
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